Have We Reached Our Intellectual Peak?

Have We Reached Our Intellectual Peak?

When we talk about "Peak Human," we are not referring to peak population or even physical performance. Instead, it raises the question of whether we have reached a point where AI systems can outthink the majority of individual humans, marking the moment where humanity peaks as an intellectual force on the planet. Once we pass this milestone, our cognitive edge may start to diminish until AI outperforms even the most brilliant among us. This could mark the transition to AI superintelligence, a potential turning point for society.

While many focus on the eventual rise of AI superintelligence, it’s important to track the first milestone: the point at which AI can outthink most humans. Remarkably, this could happen within months, not years.

AI’s Rapid Rise: Where Are We Now?

Historically, the average human could outperform AI in basic reasoning tasks. A commonly accepted measure of reasoning is the IQ test. Recently, journalist Maxim Lott administered a standardized Mensa IQ test to large language models (LLMs). In a groundbreaking result, OpenAI's new "o1" system reportedly scored an IQ of 120, surpassing the median human IQ of 100.

This result raises the question: Has AI exceeded human reasoning abilities? Not entirely. When subjected to a custom IQ test—one that the AI had no exposure to during its training—OpenAI’s "o1" model scored an IQ of 95. While it still outperformed 37% of adults, it was far from surpassing the majority. However, this marked a significant improvement over earlier models, with AI models rapidly closing the gap.

At this rate, it's highly likely that AI will soon outperform more than 50% of adult humans on reasoning tasks, possibly within the next year. This reality is unsettling for many. While AI models like OpenAI’s "o1" can still make mistakes, humans do too. The notion that AI uses “pattern matching” and “memorization” is often criticized, but these are tactics that humans also rely on.

Will 2024 Be the Year We Reach Peak Human?

From a purely reasoning-based perspective, 2024 will likely see at least one AI model that outperforms more than 50% of adult humans. But does this mean we’ve reached Peak Human? Not necessarily.

Humans have a unique advantage: collective intelligence. While AI may soon surpass individual reasoning, our ability to collaborate in groups gives us a powerful cognitive advantage. Researchers like myself are exploring ways to harness this collective intelligence to push humanity’s intellectual capabilities even further.

The Promise of Collective Superintelligence

In my research over the past decade, I’ve focused on using AI to connect human groups into real-time systems, amplifying their collective intelligence. Known as Collective Superintelligence, this approach has the potential to keep humanity competitive with AI systems, even after they surpass individual reasoning abilities.

Our early experiments with Swarm AI, conducted in 2019, demonstrated that small groups of people deliberating together could boost their collective IQ to 114, a promising start. More recently, a new technology called Conversational Swarm Intelligence (CSI) has been able to amplify the collective IQ of larger groups, reaching an average score of 128 in recent experiments.

This ability to connect human minds into powerful, AI-mediated groups offers a path forward, potentially keeping humanity ahead of AI’s purely digital superintelligence. Collective Superintelligence is more than just a technical achievement—it also retains the values, morals, and interests that define human intelligence.

The Broader Challenge: Creativity and Beyond

Some may argue that human intelligence is more than reasoning ability, pointing to qualities like creativity and artistry. Unfortunately, AI is advancing rapidly in these areas as well. A recent analysis found that Generative AI now produces 15 billion images per year, and this rate is accelerating. Moreover, studies suggest that AI chatbots are now outperforming humans in creativity tests.

The question of whether AI will surpass humans in all cognitive domains—reasoning, creativity, artistry—is no longer hypothetical. It’s becoming a reality. The challenge now is to find ways to maintain our cognitive edge while AI continues to evolve at an accelerating pace.

Conclusion: Preparing for a New Reality

As we face the possibility of AI surpassing human intelligence, it's essential to leverage collective intelligence to keep humanity competitive. Whether we have reached Peak Human or not, the coming years will define our position in a world increasingly shaped by AI. Through collaboration, innovation, and strategic use of AI, we can extend our intellectual capabilities and ensure that human values remain central to the future of intelligence on earth.